{"id":5373,"date":"2024-06-26T09:20:52","date_gmt":"2024-06-26T07:20:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/?p=5373"},"modified":"2024-06-26T09:20:53","modified_gmt":"2024-06-26T07:20:53","slug":"la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-12-fables-et-sondages","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2024\/06\/26\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-12-fables-et-sondages\/","title":{"rendered":"La Geste des statistiques et de l\u2019opinion \u2013 \u00c9pisode 12\u00a0: Fables et sondages"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-vimeo wp-block-embed-vimeo wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"La Geste des statistiques et de l\u2019opinion \u2013 \u00c9pisode 12 : Fables et sondages\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/968581986?dnt=1&amp;app_id=122963\" width=\"660\" height=\"371\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture; clipboard-write\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">La Geste des statistiques et de l\u2019opinion \u2013 \u00c9pisode 12\u00a0: Fables et sondages<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-33a938f1-2dfe-4cda-9e9a-315f7d73b957\">Dans la s\u00e9rie de <em>lives<\/em> intitul\u00e9e <em>La&nbsp;Geste&nbsp;des&nbsp;statistiques&nbsp;et&nbsp;de&nbsp;l\u2019opinion<\/em>, je pr\u00e9sente comment fonctionnent les sondages et comment les lire. Voici la rediffusion du douzi\u00e8me \u00e9pisode, <em>Fables&nbsp;et&nbsp;sondages<\/em>, dans lequel, avec <a title=\"La cha\u00eene Youtube \u201cDessines-moi une question\u201d\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCAxys28BoHlIzXfPeuiuVKQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Chlo\u00e9&nbsp;<span style=\"font-variant: small-caps;\">Debauges<\/span><\/a>, nous pr\u00e9sentons les questions \u00e9pist\u00e9mologiques derri\u00e8re les sondages, notamment, nous montrons qu\u2019il ne s\u2019agit pas de dire que tout est jou\u00e9, mais bien de suivre les \u00e9volutions de l\u2019opinion. \u00c9galement, nous faisons un premier point sur les sondages concernant le premier tour des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives fran\u00e7aises de 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p>Le support de pr\u00e9sentation est <a title=\"Support de pr\u00e9sentation.\" href=\"https:\/\/www.swisstransfer.com\/d\/60a0288c-5dbf-4a13-9776-86ae0823e806\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">disponible en ligne<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le d\u00e9p\u00f4t du code est <a title=\"D\u00e9p\u00f4t du code\" href=\"https:\/\/framagit.org\/ylebars\/analysesondage\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">disponible en ligne<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le premier \u00e9pisode est <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 1 : Le Jeu des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2021\/11\/03\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-1-le-jeu-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le deuxi\u00e8me \u00e9pisode est <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 2 : Le Choc des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2021\/12\/06\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-2-le-choc-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a> \u00e9galement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le troisi\u00e8me \u00e9pisode est aussi <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 3 : La Temp\u00eate des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2021\/12\/24\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-3-la-tempete-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le quatri\u00e8me \u00e9pisode est \u00e9galement <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 4 : Le Festin des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/01\/17\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-4-le-festin-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le cinqui\u00e8me \u00e9pisode est, lui aussi, <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 5 : La Danse des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/02\/21\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-5-la-danse-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le sixi\u00e8me \u00e9pisode, pour sa part, est \u00e9galement <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 6 : Le Vent des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/03\/24\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-6-le-vent-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vous pouvez aussi trouver le septi\u00e8me \u00e9pisode <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 7 : Un R\u00eave de sondage\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/04\/03\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-7-un-reve-de-sondage\/\">sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le premier hors-s\u00e9rie est, lui aussi, <a title=\"Hors-s\u00e9rie : Sondage et voyance\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/04\/08\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-hors-serie-sondages-et-voyance\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le huiti\u00e8me \u00e9pisode est \u00e9galement <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 8 : L\u2019Ombre des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/04\/17\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-8-lombre-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toujours sur ce site, le <a title=\"Hors-s\u00e9rie num\u00e9ro 2 : Les Annonces des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/04\/22\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-hors-serie-n-2-les-annonces-des-sondages\/\">deuxi\u00e8me hors-s\u00e9rie est disponible<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le neuvi\u00e8me \u00e9pisode est \u00e9galement <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 9 : La Guerre des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/05\/31\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-9-la-guerre-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le troisi\u00e8me hors-s\u00e9rie est aussi <a title=\"Hors-s\u00e9rie n\u00b0 3 : Sondages et confusion\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/06\/11\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-hors-serie-n-3-sondages-et-confusion\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toujours sur ce site, <a title=\"Hors-s\u00e9rie n\u00b0 4 : Les Sondages de la discorde\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/06\/17\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-hors-serie-n-4-les-sondages-de-la-discorde\/\">le quatri\u00e8me hors-s\u00e9rie est disponible<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De plus, le dixi\u00e8me \u00e9pisode est <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 10&nbsp;: Les Conclusions des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2022\/07\/13\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-10-les-conclusions-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le onzi\u00e8me \u00e9pisode est \u00e9galement <a title=\"\u00c9pisode 11&nbsp;: La Maison des sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2024\/05\/28\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-11-la-maison-des-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enfin, le hors-s\u00e9rie num\u00e9ro cinq est <a title=\"Hors-s\u00e9rie num\u00e9ro 5&nbsp;: Le Chevalier aux sondages\" href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2024\/06\/07\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-hors-serie-numero-5-le-chevalier-aux-sondages\/\">disponible sur ce site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a title=\"Liste de sondages sur les \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives fran\u00e7aises de 2024\" href=\"https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Liste_de_sondages_sur_les_%C3%A9lections_l%C3%A9gislatives_fran%C3%A7aises_de_2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">L\u2019agr\u00e9gation de sondages de Wikip\u00e9dia<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a title=\"D\u00e9cision n\u00b0 488379\" href=\"https:\/\/www.conseil-etat.fr\/fr\/arianeweb\/CE\/decision\/2023-09-21\/488379\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">La d\u00e9cision du Conseil&nbsp;d\u2019\u00e9tat quant aux qualifications du Rassemblement&nbsp;national et de La&nbsp;France&nbsp;insoumise<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-variant: small-caps;\">Lambrecht<\/span>, Maxime (2024). <em>L\u2019extr\u00eame droite, c\u2019est quoi\u202f?<\/em>, Philoxime, Conceptoth\u00e8que, Youtube. <a title=\"L'extr\u00eame droite, c'est quoi ? - CONCEPTOTH\u00c8QUE\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=1sIwyqb7aVo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Disponible en ligne<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a title=\"Umberto ECO, 14 signaux pour reconna\u00eetre le fascisme\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lesnouveauxdissidents.org\/single-post\/2017\/07\/24\/Umberto-Eco-14-signaux-pour-reconna%C3%AEtre-le-fascisme\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Les 14 signaux pour reconna\u00eetre le fascisme rassembl\u00e9s par Umberto&nbsp;<span style=\"font-variant: small-caps;\">Eco<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a title=\"Ma logique politique c\u2019est le refus de la lutte des classes\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ZemmourEric\/status\/1493636250993049609\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00c9ric&nbsp;<span style=\"font-variant: small-caps;\">Zemmour<\/span> a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 vouloir remplacer la lutte des classes par la collaboration de classe<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a title=\"\u201c\u00c9ric Zemmour est l\u2019expression de l\u2019an\u00e9antissement presque total du d\u00e9bat public\u201d\" href=\"https:\/\/www.telerama.fr\/debats-reportages\/eric-zemmour-est-l-expression-de-l-aneantissement-presque-total-du-debat-public-7007710.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Le discours d\u2019\u00c9ric&nbsp;<span style=\"font-variant: small-caps;\">Zemmour<\/span> correspond \u00e0 un discours n\u00e9o-fasciste.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-variant: small-caps;\">Till\u00e9<\/span>, Yves (2019). <em>Th\u00e9orie des sondages, \u00c9chantillonnage et estimation en populations finies<\/em>, deuxi\u00e8me \u00e9dition, Dunod, Paris.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans la s\u00e9rie de lives intitul\u00e9e La&nbsp;Geste&nbsp;des&nbsp;statistiques&nbsp;et&nbsp;de&nbsp;l\u2019opinion, je pr\u00e9sente comment fonctionnent les sondages et comment les lire. Voici la rediffusion du douzi\u00e8me \u00e9pisode, Fables&nbsp;et&nbsp;sondages, dans lequel, avec Chlo\u00e9&nbsp;Debauges, nous pr\u00e9sentons les questions \u00e9pist\u00e9mologiques derri\u00e8re les sondages, notamment, nous montrons qu\u2019il ne s\u2019agit pas de dire que tout est jou\u00e9, mais bien de suivre les \u00e9volutions &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/le-bars.net\/yoann\/fr\/2024\/06\/26\/la-geste-des-statistiques-et-de-lopinion-episode-12-fables-et-sondages\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture de <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">La Geste des statistiques et de l\u2019opinion \u2013 \u00c9pisode 12\u00a0: Fables et sondages<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,43],"tags":[171,133,66],"class_list":["post-5373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","hentry","category-politique","category-science","tag-cds","tag-mathematiques","tag-vulgarisation","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La Geste des statistiques et de l\u2019opinion \u2013 \u00c9pisode 12\u00a0: Fables et sondages &#8211; 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